EUR/USD Forecast January 2, 2013, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair continued to bounce around in the relatively tight consolidation area that we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks. The 1.3150 level continues offer support, as the 1.33 level continues offer resistance. Going forward, we think that it will take a break above 1.33 or below 1.3150 to get any type of clarity in this market at all. Until then, we see this is a short-term scalper’s type of market that will do well for people playing the short-term charts. Once we get a significant break out though, we are willing to follow the market for an extended period of time.

EUR/USD Forecast January 2, 2013, Technical Analysis

Credit : FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis

Euro (€) / US Dollar ($) (EUR/USD) Mid-Session Update for December 27, 2012

The EUR/USD fell abruptly on Thursday after an early session rally. Today’s potential higher-high, lower-close now has the market in a position to form a secondary lower-top which is usually a sign that it is getting ready to change trend. 

After the early session rally, a new main bottom was confirmed at 1.3158. This brought up stops from under the 1.2876 bottom from December 7. According to the trend indicator chart, a move through 1.3158 will turn the main trend down on the daily chart.

Daily EUR/USD Chart

A Gann angle at 1.3283 helped provide the resistance today from the 1.3308 top. Technically, this set in motion the early selling pressure shortly before news broke that triggered the sharp sell-off. According to the chart pattern on the daily chart, a break through 1.3158 could drive the market into an uptrending Gann angle currently at 1.3136.

This angle has provided strength and direction for the Euro since December 7. A break through it likely means that sentiment has shifted to the downside, making the market vulnerable to a near-term correction into a retracement zone.

Based on the December 7 bottom at 1.2876 to the December 19 top at 1.3308, a normal correction of this range targets a retracement zone at 1.3092 to 1.3041. If downside momentum continues then traders should watch for an eventual break into this zone over the near-term. 

Since this has become a news driven market, investors should watch for increased volatility. 

Credit : By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk 

EUR/USD Forecast December 27, 2012, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair rose during the session on Wednesday as the bullishness continues. However, the market still looks like it is trying to consolidate between the 1.3150 and 1.33 levels. This market seems to be “stalling” at the moment, and as a result we think that this pair will continue to struggle to find any real traction between now and the end of the year.

A break above the 1.33 level would have us buying again, and in full force. However, we think the “fiscal cliff” talks will continue to push this pair around, and it looks as if that situation is stalling at the moment. Because of this, we think this pair goes nowhere until next year.

Credit : FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis

Euro (€) / US Dollar ($) (EUR/USD) Mid-Session Update for December 26, 2012

After posting an inside day on December 24, the EUR/USD expanded its range to the upside with a move to 1.3253. The rally actually did nothing to the structure of the chart pattern except keep prices in the upper end of the monthly range. 

The main trend is still up on the daily chart despite the two-day setback from the December 19 closing price reversal top at 1.3308. Today’s action has helped form a minor bottom at 1.3158. A trade through 1.3253 will turn this bottom into a main bottom. If a main bottom is formed then a trade through it will turn the trend to down. Otherwise, the Euro is likely to push higher against the dollar, eventually resuming the uptrend on a breakout over 1.3308. 

Daily EUR/USD Chart

Based on the near-term range of 1.3308 to 1.3158, a new retracement zone has formed at 1.3233 to 1.3251. Today’s high proved to be a successful test of the Fibonacci price level or upper end of this zone. If the short-term rally fails in this zone then this will be a potentially bearish sign. The formation of a secondary lower-top will be a clear sign that sentiment is shifting to the downside. 

Besides the retracement zone, Gann angle resistance at 1.3228, 1.3268 and 1.3288 could any rally today, but taking out these angles and closing above them will be strong signs that the buying is greater than the selling and that 1.3308 will eventually fail as a top. 

In summary, the main trend is up, but the EUR/USD could be setting up for a secondary lower-top. The failure to continue the current rally will suggest the market is poised for a break to 1.3092 over the near-term. 

Credit : By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk 

EUR/USD Forecast December 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

EUR/USD initially rallied during the shortened Christmas Eve session on Monday, but failed to hold above the 1.32 handle and formed a shooting star. The market has produced three shooting star is the last four sessions now, and as a result we believe that a fall from this area could be coming.

However, we see the 1.3150 level as a significant support level at the moment, and because of this we are not ready to start selling quite yet. In fact, we think this is a bit of a soft “zone” that should produce enough support that we really need to see a move down below the 1.3100 handle. On a daily close below that number, we believe that you could move as low as 1.2900 in the relatively short term.

One of the biggest drivers of this pair will without a doubt will be the so-called “fiscal cliff” talks that are going on in Washington DC currently. This is a “risk on” type of pair, and as a result we will not see this pair gained much until that situation gets resolved. In fact, as long as this discussion continues, we think that there will be some very strong headwinds against gaining in most risk related currencies.

Judging by the shape of these candles however, this correction could be coming fairly quick. We don’t necessarily look for this market to meltdown, simply that we will need to see a quick correction in order to wake up Congress, and get them back to work. This happens quite a bit, as the stock markets will suddenly fall when things aren’t quite right, and then suddenly the congressional members can get something together and propose legislation. We think this is essentially what’s going on right now, and once we see some type of resolution, we could see this pair skyrocket as the bullishness would undoubtedly return to the Euro and other risk related commodity currencies out there. With that being said, we think this is going to be a quick plunge down, followed by a more sustained move higher.

EUR/USD Forecast December 26, 2012, Technical Analysis

Credit : FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis

EUR/USD Forecast December 24, 2012, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair fell on Friday, but found quite a bit of support at the 1.3150 handle as it bounced from that significant level. With Wednesday and Thursday both printing shooting stars, and the Friday candle pretty when essentially looks like a hammer, it appears this market ready to consolidate in this general vicinity. This is not surprise to us as the week ahead is a holiday week, and as such most traders won’t be willing to take large positions. However, or break down below the 1.3150 level would be a very sign that we could continue much lower, but a break above the 1.33 handle is very bullish. Until we get one of these moves, this pair will more than likely sit still.

EUR/USD Forecast December 24, 2012, Technical Analysis

Credit : FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis

Weekly Price Action Trading Outlook for December 24th to 28th 2012

EURUSD – Euro/dollar moves lower from pin bar reversal

The EURUSD saw a dramatic shift into last week’s close as the pin bar signal that we discussed in Wednesday’s commentary saw price move lower. It’s worth noting that on Thursday price retraced to just above the 50% level of Wednesday’s pin bar, allowing for a 50% entry strategy to be used on this pin bar. This is one of the pin bar entry techniques discussed in my trading course and it allows for a tight stop loss placement and huge potential risk reward. Going forward, it looks like sellers have control of the market at this point and we could see this short-term bearish momentum continue this week. There’s a bearish pin bar on the weekly chart and the 4 hour formed pin bar sell signals late last week. Thus, if this market continues lower this week and can break down below near-term support at 1.3125 we could see a larger move lower. However, we need to keep an eye on the price action near 1.3125, if the market shows strength and rejection of lower prices near that level we might see the market resume it’s previous bullish momentum.

Forex Trading Commentary by Nial Fuller