Forex Market Commentary: EURUSD Continues to Consolidate, 23rd January 2013

Daily Forex Trading Commentary by Nial Fuller 

Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:

EURUSD – Euro/dollar continues to consolidate

Yesterday, in our members forum I made a post about the EURUSD discussing the potential for a move lower but insisting that we needed to see downside follow through to confirm any short entry. We can see that since then the market has just continued to chop sideways on the 4 hour and daily chart and as of now we are taking a neutral bias on this market.

Anyone looking to trade this market should wait for a convincing break and close above or below this current consolidation range before looking for an entry. Some clues on the intra-day chart would be a strong 4 hour pin bar reversal signal, but even reversals become less effective in consolidation. This market is simply too indecisive right now to try and pick a direction, so traders are going to be best served by exercising caution until we get a strong break out from this current choppy price action.

Euro (€) / US Dollar ($) (EUR/USD) Mid-Session Update for January 23, 2013

A strong surge in the U.S. Dollar is triggering a rapid sell-off in the Euro at the mid-session. The move is also putting a bearish spin on U.S. equity markets which could be a sign of increased demand for lower-yielding assets. 

Although the news isn’t clear at this time, developments in the debt ceiling negotiations may be spooking traders. If the deal to extend the debt ceiling by four months gets taken off the table, the Euro may weaken further as this would indicates a serious shift in sentiment to safety. 

Daily EUR/USD Chart

Technically, the EUR/USD is trading in a short-term range bounded by 1.3403 to 1.3256. The mid-point or pivot price of this range is 1.3330. For much of the session, the Euro straddled this pivot price, suggesting an indecisive market. Shortly before the mid-session, the market broke sharply, stopping short of an uptrending Gann angle at 1.3257. 

The main bottom at 1.3256 and the Gann angle at 1.3257 combine to form an important support cluster. Because of the downside momentum, traders have to watch this cluster carefully. A failure to hold at this level should trigger a rapid break. Not only will the trend change to down on the trade through 1.3256, but last week’s weekly closing price reversal will also be confirmed. 

Hourly EUR/USD Chart

A confirmation of the weekly reversal will set up a further decline. Since the main range is 1.2997 to 1.3403, traders should watch for a near-term correction into its retracement zone at 1.3200 to 1.3152. 

The 60-minute chart shows that the market has been range bound for several hours. It also shows clearly that a trade through 1.3256 could trigger an acceleration to the downside since the nearest support level is 1.3038. 

Credit : By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk 

EURUSD Forecast 22/1/2013 Daily

EURUSD 22/1/2013 D1

D1 อาจจะเป็นรูปแบบ Double top ถ้าลงผ่านแนวรับมาได้ก็จะเป็น  Double top ที่สมบูรณ์ โดยส่วนตัวคิดว่าน่าจะลงมายังแนวรับก่อน  แต่เทรนหลักยังเป็นขาขึ้นอยู่

Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3365

Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday | Written by Action Forex | Jan 21 13 15:34 GMT

EUR/USD – 1.3313 Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A Trend : Up Tenkan-Sen level              :1.3316 Kijun-Sen level                 :1.3306 Ichimoku cloud top              :1.3347 Ichimoku cloud bottom          :1.3328 Original strategy :  Sell at 1.3365, Target; 1.3265, Stop: 1.3400 Position: - Target:  - Stop:- New strategy  :   Sell at 1.3365, Target; 1.3265, Stop: 1.3400 Position: - Target:  - Stop:-  As the single currency has traded narrow after Friday’s retreat from 1.3398 to 1.3281, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and still reckon upside would be limited to 1.3365-75, bring further consolidation below previous resistance at 1.3404, below said support at 1.3281 would bring weakness towards previous support at 1.3258 but sharp fall below 1.3220-25 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3038-1.3404) is not envisaged and renewed buying interests should emerge above 1.3200, bring another rise later. In view of this, we are looking to turn short on recovery as 1.3370-75 should limit upside. Only above Friday’s high of 1.3398 would shift risk back to upside for a retest of recent high of 1.3404 but break there is needed to confirm early upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.3440-45 (50% projection of 1.3038-1.3404 measuring from 1.3258), then towards 1.3484 (61.8% projection), however, price should falter well below 1.3500-10 (psychological resistance and 61.8% projection of 1.2998-1.3404 measuring from 1.3258).

Euro (€) / US Dollar ($) (EUR/USD) Mid-Session Update for January 21, 2013

Trading was light on Monday due to a U.S. holiday. Although the EUR/USD is managing to post a small gain, it was range bound. Typically, an inside day indicates impending volatility which we could see when the Forex markets resume their normal activity on Tuesday. 

Based on the short-term range of 1.3403 to 1.3256, the new pivot price is 1.3330. This price is controlling the short-term direction of the market. Since the market is trading below it, there is a slight bias to the downside. 

Daily EUR/USD Chart

A trade though 1.3256 will confirm last week’s closing price reversal top. This is likely to trigger an acceleration into an uptrending Gann angle from the 1.2997 bottom at 1.3217 today. 

The spiraling action on the 60-minute chart is another indication of impending volatility. The short-term range is 1.3332 to 1.3299. A break out through either price is likely to trigger a volatile move. 

Hourly EUR/USD Chart

A trade through 1.3332 is likely to trigger a move to 1.3370. A move through 1.3299 will likely means a quick test of 1.3280 then 1.3256. 

Credit : By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk 

Weekly Price Action Trading Outlook for January 21st to January 25th 2013

Weekly Price Action Trading Outlook for January 21st to January 25th 2013

Daily Forex Trading Commentary by Nial Fuller 

EURUSD – Euro/dollar uptrend intact, waiting for a buy signal

The EURUSD entered into a consolidation phase last week after hitting a high of 1.3403 last Monday. The uptrend in this market remains intact, and this week we are waiting for a pullback to support to buy into this uptrend on weakness. If the market rotates down into the 1.3250 – 1.3150 support / value zone we will keep our eyes peeled for a 4 hour or daily chart price action buy signal to trade back in-line with the uptrend.

EUR/USD Forecast January 21, 2013, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair fell during the session on Friday, but remains above the 1.33 support level in order to stay relatively bullish. The pair looks like it’s trying to continue climbing higher, and as a result we think that a bounce is more than likely going to come. We are one willing to start buying here, for short-term gains but we think that the 1.34 level will be resistance for the next couple of sessions. Once we get above the 1.34 level, we think that the 1.35 level will be targeted and a move above that would be a massively bullish sign as it would be breaking the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders. The inverted head and shoulders measures for a move up to the 1.50 level, which of course would be a massive move indeed.

Because of this, we sincerely hope that the pair can break out and look to hold onto any trade that shows inclinations of that. Taken a couple small losses in the process will be nothing compared of the reward that could be had if this trade triggers.

We see the 1.3250 level is extremely supportive below as well, and as a result is going to be almost impossible to short this pair in the meantime. In fact, we think that the pair has plenty of support all the way down to the 1.30 level, and as a result we think that any pullbacks will offer buying opportunities in the near-term.

The European Central Bank has suggested recently that they have no intentions on cutting rates and as a result we should see the Euro continue to be bid up in a fairly healthy manner. This pair should continue to chop along and no fluid movement will probably be seen until we get above the 1.35 level, however there seem to be plenty of headlines that affect this pair every few days, so a sudden move could possibly happen. Again, as for selling we have no interest in doing so until we get below the 1.30 level, and at that point time we would have to think about it a little harder.

EUR/USD Forecast January 21, 2013, Technical Analysis

Credit : FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis