Daily FX Report
Good morning from cold Hamburg and welcome to our first Daily FX Report in this week. ECB Executive Boards member Asmussen said yesterday that Cypriot banks' integration in the Greek financial system show a risk to the stability of the euro which have to be taken under consideration if the island should gain rescue aid or not.
We wish you a great start into a new trading week
Markets review
The final G-20 communique released in Moscow on the weekend fell short of last week's Groupof- Seven statement. There was a risk that they might have fired a warning shot at Japan, but they did not do so. Japanese officials denied driving down their currency on purpose as they commented that its depreciation was a byproduct of their effort to revive their economy. The G- 20 finance ministers and central bankers ended on the 16th of February pledged not to target exchange rates for competitive purposes and to avoid currency wars. The market will continue to focus on the JPY and on the replacement BOJ Governor, who will step down on March 19. The new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will probably nominate Asian development bank President Kuroda, who might pursue the government's anti-deflation course. The G-20 also agreed to work together to curb multinational companies' leeway to shift profits to low-tax countries. They also stated that the world economic growth remains weak and unemployment is too high in many countries. So it requires more work to create a stronger monetary and economic union in the euro area. Japan's currency continued its downward trend and dropped 0.2 percent versus the USD to 93.72. The EUR/JPY increased 0.1 percent to 125.04. Tomorrow minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia' meeting will be released and the market expects that the Governor Glenn Stevens might cut Australia's key rate to record this year. An additional report already showed that New Zealand's service industries expanded at a faster pace. The Perfomance of Service Index climbed to 52.6 in the past month from 51.5 from December. The AUD/NZD was 0.3 percent away from a 2 ½ year low at 1.2185 and the AUD/USD depreciated 0.1 percent to 1.0297. The AUD/JPY rose 0.2 percent to 96.56 while the NZD/JPY also rose 0.3 percent to 79.22. The EUR/USD declined to 1.3339. Today the U.S. financial markets are shut today for a holiday.
Technical analysis
GBP/USD (4 Hours)
As we can see on the screenshot, the GBP has been weakening versus the USD, and is trading below a bearish Fibonacci fan for the past three weeks. Although the RSI is on a low level a continuation of this bearish trend might be possible if the GBP/USD fails to recover at the support line around 1.54604 and enters at least the lowest channel of the fan.
| Support Levels around | Resistance Levels around |
| 1.54604 | 1.56813 |
| N/A | 1.58214 |
| N/A | 1.58795 |
EUR/CHF (4 Hours)
Since the middle of the past month the EUR decreased from its high around 1.2566 along a bearish Fibonacci fan. At the beginning of February the bulls took again control of the pair and pushed it up to the resistance line around 1.23684 by traversing the fan. There the pair rebounded but based on the stochastic another bullish movement and a breakout of the fan might be possible.
| Support Levels around | Resistance Levels around |
| 1.22484 | 1.23684 |
| 1.20806 | 1.24901 |
| N/A | 1.25662 |
EUR/JPY (Daily)
At the beginning of November the EUR/JPY started its long term bullish trend and is now close to a three year high. Based on the oversold Momentum and the Moving Average the EUR/JPY might be strong enough to cross in its next attempt the resistance line around 127.61.
| Support Levels around | Resistance Levels around |
| 116.984 | 127.610 |
| 113.195 | N/A |
| 105.232 | N/A |
ไม่มีความคิดเห็น:
แสดงความคิดเห็น