The Daily Forecaster: EURUSD
Price: 1.3192
Bias: While 1.3194 - 1.3231 caps there still remains downside risk
The underlying MT direction is neutral while the daily bias is bearish. Therefore it may be better to sit out of the market or trade breaks when supported by bullish or bearish set up patterns. It is advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support a trade in either direction. 2 It may well be advisable to take profits when seen or if there is a larger break out to consider using a trailing stop to protect profits. 3
Consider buy set ups at: 1.3019-37
Consider sell set ups at: 1.3190-20
| Resistance | 1.3194-08 | 1.3231 | 1.3254-62 | 1.3282-01 | 1.3320 | 1.3335-55 |
| Support | 1.3160 | 1.3136 | 1.3109 | 1.3091 | 1.3064 | 1.3019-37 |
Daily outlook
Yesterday's upside was hardly much at all and losses developed very directly once again even reaching the lower 1.3186 target and then 1.3160 early this morning. This new low looks more like the start of the next decline. I suspect it can still edge a bit higher but holding within the broad 1.3190-1.3231 area. From there we should see losses below 1.3160. At this point we cannot not yet identify intermediate stalling points although I suspect it may be in the 1.3091-09 area... Depending on how deep this current correction develops will imply the depth of the correction in or around 1.3090-09. However, the next larger downside target is identifiable and appears to be in the 1.3019-37 area. This should trigger a modest correction higher (130-150 points approx.) Do also keep in mind the 1.3064 projection.
An earlier break back above 1.3231 would surprise and complicate things a little. We should watch the 1.3254-62 area but there would seem to be more chance of seeing 1.3282-01 in a loose double bottom target and deeper retracement target. Also note 1.3320. I'd still then look for losses.
Medium Term Outlook
22nd February: Things are moving very quickly at the moment with targets being hit and further projections developing. With 4-hour momentum bearish my feeling is that we should see direct losses down to 1.3064 at least and I feel 1.3019-37 is a more likely target. This should provoke a much deeper correction to around 1.3150-80 approx. Beyond will still require further losses...
Only a break above 1.3320-50 would take this back higher directly
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