The EUR/USD surged after U.S. legislators agreed to pass a bill that helps the country avoid a so-called “fiscal cliff” fueled by tax hikes and spending cuts.
After finding early session support on an uptrending Gann angle at 1.3216, the market proceeded to cross over to the bullish side of downtrending Gann angles at 1.3228, 1.3268 and 1.3288. Additionally, the Euro also crossed to the bullish side of a short-term 50% price level at 1.3233.
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Daily EUR/USD Chart
Despite the initial surge, the EUR/USD failed to garner enough upside momentum to take out the swing top at 1.3308. A move through this level would have meant a resumption of the uptrend. The inability to impress bullish traders may have been a sign that the early rally was short-covering rather than new buying.
The subsequent sell-off into the mid-session put the market on the bearish side of the 50% level at 1.3233. This was the first sign of weakness. The second sign of weakness was breaking back under the downtrending angle at 1.3228. Finally, breaking through the long-term uptrending angle at 1.3216 is a sign that sentiment may be turning. If the market goes through the swing bottom at 1.3158 with conviction, the trend will change to down.
Today’s dramatic reversal and change in trend to down suggest more downside pressure is likely. Based on the main range of 1.2876 to 1.3308, traders should watch for a break into 1.3092 to 1.3041 over the near-term.