Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3415 , Feb 18 2013

Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday | Written by Action Forex | Feb 18 13 07:19 GMT

EUR/USD – 1.3338

Most recent candlesticks pattern  : Shooting star

Trend                                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              :1.3341
Kijun-Sen level                 :1.3343
Ichimoku cloud top              :1.3418
Ichimoku cloud bottom          :1.3375

Original strategy                              :

Sell at 1.3480, Target: 1.3380, Stop: 1.3515

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

New strategy  : 

Sell at 1.3415, Target: 1.3310, Stop: 1.3450

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Despite last week’s anticipated resumption of recent decline, as the single currency rebounded after falling marginally to 1.3307 on Friday, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and another corrective bounce to 1.3365-70 and possibly Friday’s high of 1.3394 cannot be ruled out, however, the upper Kumo (now at 1.3418) should limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend recent decline from 1.3711 top for weakness to 1.3285-90 but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3250, risk from there is seen a strong recovery later.

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro on recovery. Only above 1.3455-60 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.3485-90 but still reckon resistance at 1.3520 (with a shooting star) should continue to cap euro’s upside, bring another decline later this week.

EUR/USD Steady And In Range Since Thursday,Feb 18 2013

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ZIFX.com | Feb 18 13 05:42 GMT

EUR/USD Steady And In Range Since Thursday

EUR/USD Open 1.3337 High 1.3394 Low 1.3305 Close 1.3360

On Friday Euro/Dollar traded within 85 pip range. The European currency depreciated from 1.3394 to 1.3305 on Friday, matching the negative money flow sentiment at around -16%, closing the week at 1.3360. This morning the Euro is trading quietly, with movements at the lower end of Friday's range for now.

On the 1 hour chart the upward channel has turned into range trading, while on the 3 hour chart the upward channel is on hold. Break above the nearest resistance and Friday's top at 1.3394 may trigger further strengthening of the Euro. Going bellow Friday's bottom and first support at 1.3305, however, would confirm continuation of the bearish trend, towards next objective downwards 1.3190.

Today's focus is on EMU Current account at 9 GMT.

Quotes are moving bellow the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating bearish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is negative and calm, MACD is negative and quiet too, while CCI has crossed down the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving over all light short signals.

Technical resistance levels: 1.3394 1.3510 1.3632
Technical support levels: 1.3305 1.3190 1.3064

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies, Feb 18 2013

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ICN.com | Feb 18 13 07:15 GMT

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The pair is still trading negatively, as it started this week negatively below 50% correction of CD Leg of the AB=CD bearish harmonic Pattern. The previously mentioned shows the possibility of extending the second target of the pattern at 1.3270 levels, which by breaching it the bearish move might extend reaching the key support level of the upside move shown on the graph. Linear Regression Indicators supports our negative expectations, but great volatility is expected due to entering oversold areas as shown on Stochastic.

The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1.3150 and key resistance at 1.3545.

The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 1.3990 as far as areas of 1.3350 remains intact.

Support: 1.3305, 1.3270, 1.3235, 1.3170, 1.3120
Resistance: 1.3355, 1.3405, 1.3440, 1.3480, 1.3500

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair below 1.3355 targeting 1.3305, 1.3270 then 1.3235 and stop-loss with four-hour closing above 1.3405 might be appropriate

GBP

The pair is still stable below 1.5525 levels which is considered negative and capable of cancelling any oversold signals the pair might show. Linear Regression Indicators are resistances for the pair and leading it to the downside; all of that forces us to think that the bearish move might extend reaching 1.5340 levels during the upcoming short period. Breaching 1.5690 levels will fail our expectations, but this week we prefer stabilizing below 1.5580 levels to keep the possibility of moving to the downside valid.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.5340 and key resistance at 1.5690.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside targeting 1.6875 as far as areas of 1.4225 remains intact.

Support: 1.5455, 1.5415, 1.5380, 1.5365, 1.5340
Resistance: 1.5525, 1.5580, 1.5635, 1.5690, 1.5715

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair below 1.5525 targeting 1.5415, 1.5380 then 1.5340 and stop-loss with four-hour closing above 1.5635 might be appropriate

JPY

This week’s trading started positively with the pair, but the rise was due to a price gap that got Stochastic into overbought areas. The pair couldn’t stabilize above key support level of ascending channel that was broken earlier. Therefore, trading below 94.50 levels might bring back the downside move this week. Breaching the mentioned level might test 95.50 levels before any new attempt to the downside.

The trading range for today is among key support at 89.00 and key resistance at 91.70.

The general trend over short term basis is to the upside targeting 91.70 as far as areas of 83.40 remain intact.

Support: 93.30, 93.05, 92.50, 92.05, 91.70
Resistance: 94.00, 94.15, 94.50, 95.15, 95.50

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair below 94.00 targeting 93.30, 93.05 then 92.05 and stop-loss with four-hour closing above 94.50 might be appropriate

CHF

The pair managed to stay positive and stabilize above Linear Regression Indicators since it stabilized above key resistance level of the downside move as shown on the graph. Stability above 0.9200 levels might extend the bullish move this week, as there might be great volatility and retesting to levels close to the mentioned support level 0.9200 to cover the price gap of this week, in addition to reduce the overbought signals. Trading above 0.9130 levels might extend the upside move.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 0.9080 and key resistance at 0.9425.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside stable at levels 0.9775 targeting 0.8860.

Support: 0.9200, 0.9170, 0.9155, 0.9130, 0.9080
Resistance: 0.9280, 0.9305, 0.9370, 0.9400, 0.9425

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 0.9200 targeting 0.9280, 0.9305 then 0.9370 and stop-loss with four-hour closing below 0.9135 might be appropriate

CAD

Despite that the pair didn’t breach 1.0085 levels till now, but moving above 1.0055 levels with Friday closing above it weakens the possibility of negativity. Meanwhile, we cannot confirm extending the upside move now till we see the pair reacting around the referred to 1.0085 levels. Therefore, we prefer to remain neutral in our weekly report waiting for confirmation signals.

The trading range for this week is between the key support at 0.9910 and the key resistance at 1.0290.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside with daily closing below 1.0125 levels targeting 0.9400.

Support: 1.0055, 1.0030, 1.0005, 0.9980, 0.9965
Resistance: 1.0085, 1.0100, 1.0120, 1.0160, 1.0200

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we remain neutral for now awaiting more confirmations for the next move

AUD

The pair dropped and is still limited above 1.0270 levels. Meanwhile, Stochastic and Linear Regression Indicators are showing negativity, as the pair stabilizes below 1.0345 levels again. These negative conditions should be confirmed by stability below 1.0275 levels, and till that happen we prefer to be neutral.

The trading range for this week is among key support at 1.0085 and key resistance at 1.0440.

The general trend over short term basis is to the downside with daily closing below levels 1.0710 targeting 0.9400.

Support: 1.0270, 1.0220, 1.0200, 1.0165, 1.0135
Resistance: 1.0310, 1.0345, 1.0375, 1.0440, 1.0465

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we remain neutral for now awaiting more confirmations for the next move

NZD

The pair dropped again and is trading below 0.8480 and 0.8450 resistance levels weakening positivity. Meanwhile, the pair stabilized above Linear Regression Indicators and this week’s negative opening was due to the price gap. Therefore, we might witness a new attempt to the upside by stabilizing above 0.8355 levels this week. Stochastic is showing a negative bias that requires stability again above 0.8480 to cancel it.

The trading range for this week might be among key support at 0.8310 and key resistance at 0.8600.

The general trend over short term basis is to the upside with steady daily closing above 0.8130 targeting 0.8845.

Support: 0.8415, 0.8380, 0.8355, 0.8310, 0.8275
Resistance: 0.8450, 0.8480, 0.8500, 0.8520, 0.8565

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair above 0.8415 targeting 0.8480, 0.8535 then 0.8620 and stop-loss with four-hour closing below 0.8355 might be appropriate

Technical Analysis for Crosses , Feb 18 2013

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ICN.com | Feb 18 13 07:23 GMT

Technical Analysis for Crosses

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY dropped to a low at 142.78 last week, and before touching 142.60 it rebounded upwards back into the rising channel, as seen on the graph. Stochastic reflects a bullish bias on momentum however, the pair trades below Linear Regression Indicators as to this moment. Relative Strength Index shows weakness in the uptrend – the event that requires trading back within the aforesaid channel. Hereon, we prefer to stand aside in our Weekly Report, searching for signs of a specific direction.

The trading range expected for this week is between the key support at 142.60 and the key resistance at 149.60

The short-term trend is downside targeting 112.00 if 150.00 remains intact

Support: 145.00, 144.65, 144.15, 143.55, 143.10
Resistance: 146.00, 146.85, 147.25, 147.40, 148.25

Recommendation Based on the above graph and explanation, we recommend neutrality in our Weekly Report

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY rebounded bullishly from levels surrounding the uptrend's key support, and it has settled above Linear Regression Indicators. Nonetheless, Stochastic is in overbought areas, and the pair is influenced by a bearish technical setup, or correction. Breaching 126.15 is necessary to assert the continuity of the bullish surge but since the pair is trading back within the rising channel, we propose a bullish trend this week. In order for the outlook to stand valid, stability above 123.50 is required.

The trading range expected for this week is between the key support at 122.15 and the key resistance at 128.75

The short-term trend is upside targeting 128.75 if 116.15 stands intact at weekly closing

Support: 125.00, 124.85, 124.50, 123.85, 123.20
Resistance: 125.75, 126.15, 126.65, 127.40, 127.90

Recommendation Based on the above graph and explanation, we recommend buying the pair above 124.50 targeting 125.75, 126.15 and 127.40 and stop-loss at four-hour closing below 123.20

EUR/GBP

Extension of the bearish correction did not succeed last week as we have seen the pair hovering around 0.8575 before rising to settle above the Exponential Moving Average 50, as well as above Linear Regression Indicator 55. LRI 55 and 34 are trading positively – circumstance we think will deliver a potential uptrend this week. The forecasted trend may attempt to touch levels around 0.8700 however if the pair breaks and resides below 0.8575, chances of the extension of the correction will be restored.

The trading range expected for this week is between the key support at 0.8480 and the key resistance at 0.8740

The short-term trend is upside targeting 1.0370 if 0.7785 remains intact

Support: 0.8600, 0.8575, 0.8535, 0.8500, 0.8480
Resistance: 0.8650, 0.8675, 0.8700, 0.8720, 0.8740

Recommendation Based on the above graph and explanation, we recommend buying the pair above 0.8600 targeting 0.8675, 0.8700 and 0.8740 and stop-loss at four-hour closing below 0.8575 this week

Daily FX Report ,Feb 18 2013

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Varengold Bank | Feb 18 13 07:55 GMT

Daily FX Report

Good morning from cold Hamburg and welcome to our first Daily FX Report in this week. ECB Executive Boards member Asmussen said yesterday that Cypriot banks' integration in the Greek financial system show a risk to the stability of the euro which have to be taken under consideration if the island should gain rescue aid or not.

We wish you a great start into a new trading week

Markets review

The final G-20 communique released in Moscow on the weekend fell short of last week's Groupof- Seven statement. There was a risk that they might have fired a warning shot at Japan, but they did not do so. Japanese officials denied driving down their currency on purpose as they commented that its depreciation was a byproduct of their effort to revive their economy. The G- 20 finance ministers and central bankers ended on the 16th of February pledged not to target exchange rates for competitive purposes and to avoid currency wars. The market will continue to focus on the JPY and on the replacement BOJ Governor, who will step down on March 19. The new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will probably nominate Asian development bank President Kuroda, who might pursue the government's anti-deflation course. The G-20 also agreed to work together to curb multinational companies' leeway to shift profits to low-tax countries. They also stated that the world economic growth remains weak and unemployment is too high in many countries. So it requires more work to create a stronger monetary and economic union in the euro area. Japan's currency continued its downward trend and dropped 0.2 percent versus the USD to 93.72. The EUR/JPY increased 0.1 percent to 125.04. Tomorrow minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia' meeting will be released and the market expects that the Governor Glenn Stevens might cut Australia's key rate to record this year. An additional report already showed that New Zealand's service industries expanded at a faster pace. The Perfomance of Service Index climbed to 52.6 in the past month from 51.5 from December. The AUD/NZD was 0.3 percent away from a 2 ½ year low at 1.2185 and the AUD/USD depreciated 0.1 percent to 1.0297. The AUD/JPY rose 0.2 percent to 96.56 while the NZD/JPY also rose 0.3 percent to 79.22. The EUR/USD declined to 1.3339. Today the U.S. financial markets are shut today for a holiday.

Technical analysis

GBP/USD (4 Hours)

As we can see on the screenshot, the GBP has been weakening versus the USD, and is trading below a bearish Fibonacci fan for the past three weeks. Although the RSI is on a low level a continuation of this bearish trend might be possible if the GBP/USD fails to recover at the support line around 1.54604 and enters at least the lowest channel of the fan.

Support Levels around	Resistance Levels around
1.54604	1.56813
N/A	1.58214
N/A	1.58795

EUR/CHF (4 Hours)

Since the middle of the past month the EUR decreased from its high around 1.2566 along a bearish Fibonacci fan. At the beginning of February the bulls took again control of the pair and pushed it up to the resistance line around 1.23684 by traversing the fan. There the pair rebounded but based on the stochastic another bullish movement and a breakout of the fan might be possible.

Support Levels around	Resistance Levels around
1.22484	1.23684
1.20806	1.24901
N/A	1.25662

EUR/JPY (Daily)

At the beginning of November the EUR/JPY started its long term bullish trend and is now close to a three year high. Based on the oversold Momentum and the Moving Average the EUR/JPY might be strong enough to cross in its next attempt the resistance line around 127.61.

Support Levels around	Resistance Levels around
116.984	127.610
113.195	N/A
105.232	N/A

EUR/USD Forecast February 18, 2013, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the session on Friday, as it danced around the 1.3350 level. This area should provide a bit of support, but the weekly candle looks very poor at this point time. Because of this, there is the possibility that we continue lower, but right now we do not see decent set up to sell this market. Alternately, we could supposedly bounce from this area and reach the 1.35 level again, but we feel that this market right now is a very neutral one and will trade it as such.

EUR/USD Forecast February 18, 2013, Technical Analysis

Credit : FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis

The Daily Wave Analysis , Feb 18 2013

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Admiral Markets | Feb 18 13 02:41 GMT

The Daily Wave Analysis

Currency pair USD/CHF

Presumably, the Impulse (v) of [a] is close to completion . If this assumption is correct, after its completion we can expect a downward price movement in line with wave formation correctional [b] of 2

Currency pair EUR/USD

Presumably, the Impulse [v] of A is close to completion . If this assumption is correct, after its completion, we can expect an upward price movement in line with the correctional wave formation B of (2).

Currency pair GBP/USD

Presumably, the correctional wave 4 of (5) is forming . If this assumption is correct, after its completion we can expect a downward price movement in line with the Impulse or Diagonal Triangle formation 5 of (5).

Currency pair USD/JPY

Supposedly, the Impulse or Diagonal Triangle v of (v) of [iii] is forming . If this assumption is correct, in the course of the formation development we can expect an upward price movement.

USD/CHF Waiting Breakout From Triangle Consolidation , Feb 18 2013

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXTimes | Feb 18 13 02:45 GMT

USD/CHF Waiting Breakout From Triangle Consolidation

Ascending triangle: The 1H USD /CHF chart shows a pair that has been trading in a triangle consolidation a bullish swing last week. It is basically an ascending triangle. The moving averages converged as expected in a consolidation, but looks to be getting back into bullish alignment. Price can extend this very short-term bullish trend if it pushes above the resistance pivot at 0.9245. Perhaps we will get another swing like the one we had last week.

Momentum: The 1H RSI kissed 70, and has held above 40. A return above 60 would reflect bullish continuation momentum. A break below 40 would show loss of bullish momentum.

Upside vs Downside: Looking at the daily chart, we see that upside risk is a falling channel resistance, above which we might consider 0.9380 area resistance. To the downside, the area around 0.92 appears to be important (in the 1H chart) – a support/resistance pivot area. This might need to be cleared before trigger a bearish outlook, which returns focus to the downside and focus on the 0.92-0.9215 area.

Daily Forex Update: USD/CHF ,Feb 18 2013

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Autochartist | Feb 18 13 02:38 GMT

Daily Forex Update: USD/CHF

USD/CHF to rise to the target level 0.9391 in the next 5 trading days. The target level for this bullish forecast (point B on the chart below) corresponds to the previous downward reversal point of the upper trendline of the daily Down Channel identified earlier by Autochartist (which is still in the process of forming). The stop level for this upward price move is set at 0.90215, which is the last reversal point of the lower support trendline of the aforementioned Down Channel - shown in full on the second chart below.

The following chart shows the daily Down Channel which is the basis of the above trade opportunity alert. Both the Uniformity and Clarity of this chart pattern are rated at the above-average 6 bar level - which reflects the well-formed chart pattern with high visibility to the market participants. Higher visibility of this Down Channel adds to the likelihood the pair will reach the target level 0.9391 in the next 5 trading days.

Weekly Price Action Trading Outlook for February 18th to February 22nd 2013

Daily Forex Trading Commentary by Nial Fuller 

Weekly Price Action Trading Outlook for February 18th to February 22nd 2013

EURUSD – Euro/dollar showing some rejection of support; looking for buy signal

The EURUSD showed rejection of support near 1.3300 last Thursday and Friday, indicating that buying interest is coming back into the market near current levels. We would prefer to see a more obvious buy signal form within that 1.3300 – 1.3260 key support zone highlighted on the chart below. We could see a brief move lower and then a false break of this support resulting in a pin bar reversalor perhaps a fakey buy signal. We will wait patiently for a signal here as this new trading week starts. A decisive close below 1.3260 would start to negate our bullish bias.

XAUUSD – Spot Gold sells-off, more downside possible

The Spot Gold market sold-off hard on Friday, breaking and closing below $1625.00 support to end the week around $1610.00. Thefakey trading strategy that we first discussed in our February 5th commentary has now provided a very large risk reward ratio for any traders who held on into Friday’s large move lower. This market is clearly in a sustained downtrend and so we are only considering the sell-side this week. Watch for price action sell signals from resistance up near $1625.00 – $1635.00 if the market retraces higher this week.

GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar; waiting for a price action signal from support or resistance

The GBPUSD moved significantly lower last week as the downtrend accelerated. We are considering two potential scenarios for this upcoming week. Scenario 1 is looking for a buy signal from support near 1.5390, 1.5270 or the “zone” of support in between those two levels. We can see both of those support levels were significant turning points last year and so if the market continues to sell-off into them we can logically expect a bounce to occur and thus should watch for price action buy signals to form there if we continue lower this week. Scenario 2 is to watch for a price action trading sell signal to occur from resistance if the market rotates higher this week. We are watching 1.5760 area as an important resistance to look for sell signals this week to trade back in-line with the downtrend.

USDJPY – Dollar/yen uptrend remains in place but market is at key weekly resistance

The USDJPY weekly chart below shows that over the last two weeks price has clearly rejected some long-term resistance up near 94.50 – 95.00. The trend is still up in this market but given that it’s showing rejection of this key resistance we could see a larger rotation lower soon. We can still look for a buy signal on the daily chart given that the trend is still up but if this market starts to sell-off we could see a large move lower. So, be patient and wait for an obvious buy signal from support before buying this market. Alternatively, we can consider a short entry this week if the market tries to push further up into the resistance between 94.50 and 95.00 and then forms a larger pin bar reversal or fakey signal there.

Forex Market Commentary: Waiting For Price Action Signals on EURUSD and GBPUSD, 15th February 2013

Daily Forex Trading Commentary by Nial Fuller 

Trading Setups / Chart in Focus:

EURUSD – Euro/dollar ends day unchanged; looking for buy signal from support

The EURUSD ended today basically unchanged after moving lower early in the session and then paring losses into the NY close. We’ve now had two consecutive rejections of support just above 1.3300 and more aggressive traders might already be long. However, we are being more conservative here and waiting for a definitive price action signal to provide us with a long entry into the market. Thus, as of now we are waiting for an obvious buy signal to form in the key support area between 1.3300 – 1.3270. We can also keep our eyes peeled for a false break of that support area next week which could then lead to a push higher. A decisive close below 1.3270 would likely mean that more downside movement is in store however, with the next key support seen near 1.3170.

GBPUSD – Sterling/dollar ends a big down week on a quiet note

The GBPUSD consolidated today after a large move lower this week. We have two potential scenarios to look at for next week. The first scenario is watching for an obvious buy signal from key support if the market keeps falling lower next week. The key support levels to watch are down near 1.5390 and then further below that down near 1.5270. If the market rotates higher next week, we can watch for price action sell signals forming up near 1.5760 resistance to trade back in-line with the downtrend.

Potential sell-scenario for next week on the GBPUSD: