EUR/USD Forecast January 4, 2013, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair collapsed during the session on Thursday as the shooting star from the previous session set up this potential sell signal. We had suggested that the 1.3150 level will offer support during the session, and if it gave way this would open the door to lower prices. As you can see, this is exactly what happened and the fact that we are closing at the very lows of the session suggests that there will be further selling pressure ahead. We suggested that a move down to 1.29 would be very likely, and nothing in this chart says to us that we should change our opinion.

Looking forward, we think this move to 1.29 could be helped along if we get a poor jobs number today, and that is one reason that we may not be in the market. However, we already have some gains from selling this pair and think that going forward that will be the way to go at least in the short-term. Over the longer-term, it’s hard to tell, as it is a risk sensitive pair above the European Union has been an absolute disaster over the last year or two, along with the United States and this is made trading this currency pair very difficult in particular.

The Federal Reserve release the minutes during the session on Thursday and as a result the market got spooked as it appears there were more than previously known members looking to get out of the quantitative easing gain. Once the free money runs out, a lot of the bullishness in the stock market and other risk asset markets will find themselves running for the exits. This may have been a small preview of things to come that we saw in the currency markets during the Thursday session.

We think the rallies that failed to get above the 1.3150 level will offer nice selling opportunities, as would continue deterioration of this pair down to the 1.29 handle. As far as buying is concerned, we would have to break above the 1.33 level in order to do so at this point time, and this is something that we will see happening anytime soon.

EUR/USD Forecast January 4, 2013, Technical Analysis

Credit : FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis

EURUSD Forecast 4/1/2013 Daily

EURUSD 4/1/2013 D1

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Forex Commentary: EURUSD Move Lower From Pin Bars, 3rd January 2013

EURUSD – Euro/dollar weakens significantly after fakey – pin combo setup

The EURUSD also fell significantly lower today from yesterday’s fakey pin bar combo setup. We can see that near-term momentum has clearly shifted from bullish to bearish after breaking down from the consolidation that we saw recently just above 1.3155. Traders can look for price action sell signals if this market retraces back to resistance in the near-term.

Forex Trading Commentary by Nial Fuller 

EUR/USD Analysis – January 3, 2013

Following the partial resolution of the issues surrounding the so called “fiscal cliff”, markets have finally move out of their extended consolidation phases which saw many of them trade in a sideways pattern in the run up to Christmas, and the euro dollar was no
exception. The technical picture for the eurodollar on the daily chart is now dominated by one level, namely the 1.3300 price point and since early December we have seen 3 consecutive failures at this level. The first two were clearly signaled by isolated pivot highs
and a subsequent pullback as a result, and the most recent was in yesterday’s price action which saw the pair touch this level once again before closing below the 1.32 price point.

EUR/USD Analysis – January 3, 2013

This negative sentiment towards the eurodollar has continued in today’s early trading with the pair now testing the 1.3111 area at time of writing where a possible interim platform of support awaits.

The daily trend for the euro dollar remains bullish although the trend dots on the chart have flattened significantly and yesterday’s price action was accompanied by moderate selling volume, but not sufficiently high enough to suggest that this is a major reversal, but more likely a temporary pullback. Indeed, volumes today appear to be light, once again, adding further weight to this analysis.

For a medium term picture of the euro dollar the weekly chart provides some interesting clues. First the trend here remains firmly bullish and is still rising, having gained momentum from the isolated pivot low of late October and, in addition, the trend is also gaining traction from the breakout above the isolated pivot highs of August and September 2012.

Recent volumes have remained above average and bullish with only a slowdown due to the Christmas holiday period. The heatmap also remains firmly bullish and provided we see a break beyond the 1.33 level there is no reason to suppose that the eurodollar will not continue to remain strong in the short term with the next target a test of the 1.35 area in due course.

Credit :  By Anna Coulling

Euro (€) / US Dollar ($) (EUR/USD) Mid-Session Update for January 3, 2013

The EUR/USD is under pressure at the mid-session. Early in the trading session the Forex pair affirmed yesterday’s change in trend on the daily chart when the market traded through the December 21 swing bottom at 1.3158 with conviction. This old support is now new resistance. 

Based on the main range of 1.2876 to 1.3308, a retracement zone was created at 1.3092 to 1.3041. Although there was a slight technical bounce following the first test of the 50% price at 1.3092, downside momentum is continuing to drive the market lower, fueling expectations of a test of the Fibonacci price level over the near-term.

Daily EUR/USD Chart

 Before the Euro reaches the Fib price at 1.3041, the Forex pair must break through an uptrending Gann angle at 1.3046. The combination of these two technical factors actually forms a target zone today or a possible support cluster at 1.3046 to 1.3041.

 Besides the sustained drives through the support points, the market is also trading on the weak side of a downtrending Gann angle from the December 19 top at 1.3308. This angle is at 1.3128 today, making it a resistance price.

 The EUR/USD is in a position to test its first swing chart target at 1.3149, making it ripe for a rebound rally. If this price fails to attract buyers then look for the break to continue with 1.2999 and 1.2823 potential downside targets.

Credit : By FX Empire Analyst - James Hyerczyk